Market Signal Tracker

5-indicator macro regime classifier

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💡 Core Philosophy click to expand

Retail vs Professional

Retail investors focus too much on price. Professional traders focus on risk pricing, sentiment, and market depth.

Instead of asking "Is the S&P 500 up or down?", build a narrative by combining cross-asset signals to classify the market into one of 6 regime scenarios.

The Signals

VIX — institutional hedging cost, smoothed via 3-day EMA with velocity detection
VIX Term Structure — VIX vs VIX3M; backwardation confirms acute near-term stress
Fear & Greed — CNN composite of 7 retail sentiment factors (0–100)
Market Breadth — SPY vs RSP divergence: is the rally broad or mega-cap driven?
Credit Market — HYG/JNK spreads + volume surge to detect institutional de-grossing
Cross-Asset — 10Y yield + DXY + Gold; DXY acts as a global liquidity circuit breaker
Yield Curve — 10Y minus 2Y; inversion is a leading recession signal

Institutional Refinements

Hybrid Thresholds — absolute level OR 1-year percentile with absolute floor (self-calibrating)
Sticky Regime State — stress regimes persist until 2 consecutive exit-condition days (anti-whipsaw)
Price-Action Co-Signal — SPY 60-day drawdown floor catches stealth selloffs at calm VIX
DXY Circuit Breaker — multi-asset dollar-shortage detector; downgrades buy regimes to defensive
😨
SCENARIO — CONFIDENCE: —

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Regime Signal
VIX
Volatility Index · using
EMA-3: Spot:
Normal: 18–25 Panic: 25–30
Implied daily move
5-day velocity
20-day avg
1Y percentile
Term (VIX/VIX3M)
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Fear & Greed
CNN Business · 7-factor composite
Extreme FearExtreme Greed
1 week ago
1 month ago
Trend (vs 1w)
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Market Breadth
NARROW
+2.3%
SPY vs RSP divergence · 30-day
SPY (cap-weighted) +4.7%
RSP (equal-weighted) +2.4%
Divergence
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Credit Market
HY Credit Spread · BAMLH0A0HYM2
HYG 5-day
JNK 5-day
Spread vs normal
Vol surge (5d/20d)
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Cross-Asset
10Y Yield · DXY · Gold · 5-day
10Y Treasury (DGS10)
Yield curve (10Y–2Y)
DXY (DX-Y.NYB)
DXY 10-day RoC
Gold (GC=F)
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VIX — 30 Day

25 panic EMA-3

Fear & Greed — 30 Day

25 fear 75 greed

Market Breadth — 30 Day

SPY RSP

HY Credit Spread — 30 Day

6%

DXY — 30 Day

DXY −2.5% CB

Quick Decision Checklist

📈
VIX
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🧠
Fear & Greed
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🔬
Breadth
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💳
Credit
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🌐
Macro (DXY)
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📋 Scenario Guide click to expand
1 📉
Normal Pullback

Moderate volatility, cautious-but-not-fearful sentiment, credit stable. Market digesting routine weakness.

Pullback regime
2 😨
Panic

Elevated volatility, fearful sentiment, credit still holding. Institutions hedging but not de-grossing.

Risk-off regime
3 😱
Extreme Panic

High volatility, extreme fear, broad market selloff — but no systemic credit or liquidity collapse.

Acute stress regime
4 🚨
Systemic Risk

Crisis-level volatility with no sign of cooling. Credit markets breaking down, DXY surging — systemic stress confirmed.

Systemic stress regime
5 🎉
Market Euphoria

Very low volatility sustained over days, extreme greed, narrow mega-cap FOMO rally. Market priced for perfection.

Late-cycle euphoria
6 😌
Complacency

Low volatility, mild greed, market grinding higher. Often driven by narrow leadership — watch for breadth deterioration.

Mid-cycle calm

🌐 DXY Circuit Breaker (global override — applies across all scenarios)

⚠️ WARNING Dollar strengthening meaningfully — multi-asset context monitored before acting on buy signals.
🚨 HARD VETO Extreme dollar surge confirmed by cross-asset flows — global liquidity squeeze. All buy signals overridden unconditionally.

Powered by RapidAPI

One API call returns the full regime classification — scenario, all institutional signals, DXY override status, and a signal-only regime label.

click to expand Get API Key ↗
import requests

url  = "https://market-signals-tracker.p.rapidapi.com/api/signals"
headers = {
    "X-RapidAPI-Key":  "YOUR_API_KEY",
    "X-RapidAPI-Host": "market-signals-tracker.p.rapidapi.com",
}

data     = requests.get(url, headers=headers).json()
scenario = data["scenario"]

print(f"Scenario {scenario['scenario_id']}: {scenario['name']} {scenario['icon']}")
print(f"Signal:   {scenario['action']}")
print(f"VIX:      {data['signals']['vix']['value']} ({data['signals']['vix']['label']})")
Response field: scenario.name loading…
⚠️
Not Investment Advice. This dashboard is for educational and informational purposes only. The signals and scenario classifications displayed here are based on a systematic framework and do not constitute personalised financial or investment advice. Past market behaviour does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. The author accepts no liability for any losses arising from the use of this tool.