5-indicator macro regime classifier
Retail vs Professional
Retail investors focus too much on price. Professional traders focus on risk pricing, sentiment, and market depth.
Instead of asking "Is the S&P 500 up or down?", build a narrative by combining 5 cross-asset signals to classify the market into one of 6 actionable scenarios.
The 5 Signals
Institutional Refinements
| # | Scenario | VIX | Fear & Greed | Breadth | Credit | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Normal Pullback | 18–25 | 25–45 | Any | Stable | Routine DCA |
| 2 | Panic | 25–35 | <25 | Often Narrow | HYG/JNK hold | Tranche Buy (30%) |
| 3 | Extreme Panic | 35–40 | 0–15 | Often Broad ↓ | No bank collapse | Aggressive Buy |
| 4 | Systemic Risk | >40, no cooling | — | Broad selloff | Spreads blow out | Go Defensive |
| 5 | Market Euphoria | <15 (10d+) | >75 | Narrow (FOMO) | — | Trim / Covered Calls |
| 6 | Complacency | 15–18 | 45–75 | Often Narrow | Stable | Hold & Watch Breadth |
🌐 DXY Circuit Breaker (applies across all scenarios — overrides buy signals)
| 10d RoC > 2.5% | ⚠️ WARNING | Dollar strengthening — monitor multi-asset context |
| 10d RoC > 4.0% | 🚨 HARD VETO | Unconditional — global dollar shortage, all buy signals overridden |
| 2.5–4% + gold↓ + yields↑ | 🚨 HARD VETO | Cash grab matrix — all assets liquidated for USD simultaneously |